Why is Pakistan important ?

Strategic geo-political & transport bridge Mid-East and India & China



165-170m pop – More people in Pakistan than in Russia
Potential for Kashmir flare-up – risk of big impact on world growth
Border region with Afghanistan
- Cross border raids, and question of Tribal Areas and Pashtun nationalism ?
- Relationship with NATO/US military activity
Role in ‘War on Terror’ and Deobandi ideology (‘Talibs’ = ‘Students’)
Many internal factors that create risks of political instability
Nuclear armed state – and advanced delivery systems
Borders with Iran, Afghanistan, India, China, close Gulf States, C Asia
Important Diaspora – especially in the UK (and UK troops on its border !)

URGENCY: Presidential & National Assembly Elections Oct 2007
– unclear how political events will pan out